Market Engineering 代写 Introduction Of Energy
Consumption of energy is greatly affected by economic growth and thus, is influenced by trends in economic development. The International Energy Outlook 2009 (illustrated below) states that “â€¦total world consumption of marketed energy is projected to increase by 44 percent from 2006 to 2030.”
Figure 1. World Energy Consumption 1980 – 2030.
Non-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries account for most of the projected increase in energy demand, whereas economic growth of the industrialized countries is expected to slow down. Non-OECD GDP increased by an annual average of 4.1 percent over the past 25 years and is expected to reach an annual average of 4.9% by 2030. This is mainly due to the growth in Chinese and Indian economies. Growth in OECD economies was an annual average of 2.9% during 1982 to 2006, and is expected to fall further by 2030. The relationship between GDP and energy consumption is shown below.
Figure 2. Per Capita Power Consumption vs GDP.
Figure 3. OECD and Non-OECD Energy Consumption.
China and India together accounted for approximately 10% of the world’s total energy consumption in 1990, 19% by 2006, and is expected to reach 28 percent by 2030. Thus, non-OECD Asia shows the strongest projected growth of all the non-OECD regions, “with energy use rising by 104 percent from 2006 to 2030” (International Energy Outlook 2009). Strong growth can also be observed in the Middle East, Central and South America, Africa, non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, respectively. Energy consumption is becoming more efficient throughout non-OECD Europe, and in addition to a declining population, increases in consumption are less pronounced.
Other economic developments that also affect annual average consumption are:
Fluctuations in oil prices:
Changes in Energy Policy by country (legislation)
Increased emphasis on sustainable energy, which affects the decision over which type of energy generation to focus
Financial Crisis: the current economic downturn has resulted in a dampening of world demand for energy; however, this will remain short term and, is largely due to a slowdown in consumer demand for such goods and services. Nevertheless, a gradual return to trend growth is expected for most nations in the next 12 to 24 months.
“Renewables are the fastest-growing source of world energy, with consumption increasing by 3% per year” (International Energy Outlook 2009), particularly, for use in electricity generation (increasing at 2.9% per year from 2006 to 2030). With higher projected oil prices, in addition to rising concerns over the environmental impact of fossil fuel use and strong government incentives for a shift of focus towards renewable energy generation around the world, renewable energy sources are becoming more widely accepted and invested.
Concerns over energy security and rising greenhouse gas emissions have increased the demand for the development of new nuclear generating capacity. Nuclear power generation is projected to reach 3 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2030, up from 2.7 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2006. Despite this projection there is still considerable uncertainty about the future of nuclear power, particularly with respect to plant safety and waste disposal. Higher capacity utilization rates have been recorded for many existing nuclear facilities, encouraging the regeneration of older plants. Non-OECD countries having been granted an extension for operative plant life, however, some countries are unable to support the high maintenance costs required. On the other hand, China, India, and Russia represent over 65% of the expected net increment in world nuclear power capacity from 2006 to 2030.
At present, natural gas and coal account for more than 60% of global electricity generation. Coal, particularly in Asia, is a more economical source, since it is in ample supply.
These energy trends and their effects on suppliers and customers, in specific sectors of the power generation industry, are now discussed in greater detail in this essay.
2.0 Thermal Power Generation